In the universe where I get to nominate movies for an
Oscar, I would be talking about Scarlett Johansson’s Under The Skin chances
against Tilda Swinton in Only Lovers Left Alive, or David Oyelowo's chances
against Ralph Fiennes, or why Selma is a mortal lock to win Best Picture. But instead, in a universe where the Motion
Picture Academy gives Selma a (literally) token Best Picture award, I’m talking
about this:
The Beats The Crap Out Of Me’s
Best Original Screenplay
This could go to Birdman, Boyhood, or Grand Budapest
Hotel. If it goes to one of the first
two, it could be an indicator of which movie will get Best Picture. Me, I think it should go to Grand Budapest,
not least because Ralph Fiennes should have been nominated for making the
script’s main character come so alive that when you read the words on the
page, you hear Fiennes speaking them.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This could go to Whiplash, Imitation Game, or American
Sniper. The reason Whiplash is here is
because it’s based on a short film made a few years ago by the same
director. The reason Imitation Game is
here is the reason Imitation Game is everywhere in these awards, because Harvey
Weinstein. Me, I’d give it to American
Sniper, because the script sets up both a pro-war and anti-war story at the same time.
Best Animated Feature Film
This should be The Lego Movie, but The Lego Movie was not
nominated. The smart money is on How To
Train Your Dragon 2 over Big Hero 6.
Best Foreign Language Film
Do you give it to the fabulous post-Holocaust film (Ida),
the fabulous dark look at local Russian politics (Leviathan) or the fabulous
look at military and religious occupation (Timbuktu)? I’d say Leviathan, but never discount The Holocaust Factor, which
could tip it to Ida.
Best Documentary – Feature
Let’s see—one movie about current politics (CitizenFour),
one about ancient history (Last Days Of Vietnam), one about apes (Virunga), one
about a forgotten photographer (Finding Vivian Maier) and one about a Brazilian
photographer (The Salt of the Earth).
Cocking my ear to hear what Old Hollywood is saying, I pick up a raspy
voice whispering “Apes are fun; I’ll go with the apes.”
Best Documentary – Short Subject
Best Live Action Short Film
Best Animated Short Film
Beats me. And who cares, really, unless you're doing a pool?
Best Original Score
Alexander Desplat is up for two separate scores. Want to bet he wins with one of them?
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Any movie with a half-naked wrestler covered in tattoos and
a half-naked black woman in greenface should win, so I say Guardians of the
Galaxy over Grand Budapest Hotel and Steve Carell’s nose in Foxcatcher.
The Coin Tosses
Best Sound Editing
I don’t know why Whiplash isn’t up for this and The Hobbit:
The Cash Grab With Five Armies is, but there you are. My gut says American Sniper will win, because the Academy loves
to reward shoot-em-ups. But it also
loves to reward movies about Hollywood guys who stick it to New York, so it
could go to Birdman.
Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Interstellar
Part of me is betting this will go to Interstellar, part of
me is betting that this is the year the Andy Serkis Technique gets rewarded.
Best Costume Design
Mr. Turner has the kind of believable period costumes that
get dirty, so that lets them out. Into
the Woods managed to cover up Emily Blunt’s pregnancy, but didn’t ring enough
changes on Fairy Tale Couture 101.
Unlike Maleficent, which did.
That’s more of a possibility than Inherent Vice, which is way too
current to win this kind of award. Me,
I’d give it to Grand Budapest Hotel, because everybody wore the kind of
unbelievable period costumes that never have a speck of dirt on them ever.
Best Film Editing
Boyhood
Whiplash
This could go either way, depending on whether the Academy
wants to reward the woman who slogged through twelve years of footage to
assemble Richard Linklater’s dream project, or the guy who made jazz drumming
look sexier than Rosamund Pike with powdered sugar on her face.
The Mortal Locks
Best Supporting Actor : J. K. Simmons – Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Best Actress: Julianne Moore – Still Alice
The other people in these categories will try to look
gracious while they sit there waiting to get smashed at an after-party. Who would I choose if these three performers
had not made movies this year? Edward
Norton for playing himself, Emma Stone
for making Edward Norton and Michael Keaton look human, and Rosamund Pike for
making the entire movie of Gone Girl work.
Best Original Song:
"Glory" from Selma
This is the only award Selma is going to win. Considering it's only nominated in two categories, that's a great percentage. But considering it's only nominated in two categories, it's also a travesty.
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
If you stop and think about the plot of Whiplash, it makes
no logical sense at all, but thanks to the frantic editing and sound mixing,
you get so caught up in the moment that all the absurdities don’t hit you till
the movie is over.
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Seriously—was there anything more beautiful to look at last
year than this film?
Best Cinematography: Birdman
There’s a chance this could go to Mr. Turner for its
painterly compositions, or Ida for its black-and-white excellence, but I smell
an early win for Birdman.
The Down To The Wires
Best Actor
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of
Everything
Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
Keaton and Redmayne have been the front runners from the
beginning. Cooper, like his film, has
made a strong post-Christmas finish.
Keaton gets points for pretty much playing himself, and Redmayne and Cooper
get points for playing real-life people, but Redmayne gets bonus points for
playing a real-life person with a disease.
That usually trumps everything.
Except that Keaton gets bonus points for making the movie that he’s in
impossible to imagine with anyone else in the lead. I wish there was a way to see the post-award voting in this
category, because I suspect that votes for Cooper are going to be the deciding
factor here. If they take votes away
from Redmayne, Keaton wins; and vice versa.
If there were two categories, one for acting and one for performance,
Redmayne and Keaton would both win.
Barring a tie, that’s not going to happen. Me? I want Redmayne to
win it, but I think Keaton is going to pull it off, mostly because I think
votes for Cooper will cut into Redmayne’s totals.
Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu –
Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Two architects of separate but stunning tours-de-force, one
of whom uses real-time raw material to tell a story spanning years, and one of
whom uses real-time single-takes to tell a story combining fantasy and
reality. This is a hard one to call
because they each deserve to win, for pretty much the same reason—the
manipulation of time. And since you
could say that Linklater’s editor had more to do with Boyhood’s success, and
Iñárritu’s cameraman had more to do with Birdman’s success, even the hedges on
your bet are identical. Figure that if
the Academy decides to vote for the film which grabbed them harder, it will go
to Iñárritu, and if they vote for the film whose logistics are staggering,
they’ll vote for Linklater. Figure
momentum and it goes to Iñárritu. Figure direction that draws attention to
itself and it goes to Iñárritu. So I
guess figure Iñárritu. (And yet, those
twelve years behind Boyhood . . .)
Best Picture
The Imitation Game is BBC hokum; The Theory of Everything is
Hallmark hokum; and Whiplash is a monster movie populated by clashing
cymbals. Of the remaining nominees,
Grand Budapest Hotel is my personal favorite, and the movie I would like to see
win, but the Academy likes to vote for movies that make it feel good about
itself, and a movie that is tinged with melancholy despite the fact that it
goes down like a sweet confection is probably going to confuse the hell out of
Academy voters who pick up on the sadness, never mind those who think “sweet”
means “slight.” The Academy does not want to be known by a movie that makes it
feel slight, it wants a movie that makes it feel important—which is why Selma
not only doesn’t have a chance, but why it never had a chance, because how can
a bunch of old white guys feel good about a movie in which all the old white
guys are taken to school by smart, committed black men and women? (I’ve been working on a post about Selma and
Hollywood for the last two weeks, and it keeps getting angrier and
angrier.) Selma should win, but it
won’t, and I hate to think it got roundly snubbed because 12 Years A Slave won
last year, but there you are.
That leaves the Big Three.
Boyhood got out to an early lead, Birdman has been closing in the
stretch, and American Sniper came out of nowhere to make it a
neck-and-neck-and-neck race.
Birdman. Is Birdman
pretentious or amazing? A little of
both. But it’s the acting (yes, I’m
going there) that gives this movie its wings.
Edward Norton has never been better, playing a thinly-disguised version
of the asshole we’ve all heard he is.
Emma Stone has Keane kid eyes (seriously, they’re bigger than most
people’s heads) and balances a hefty chip on her shoulder with screw-you
aplomb. Michael Keaton is only a
Beetlejuice rant away from being everything you want to see Michael Keaton
embody in a lead role. But as a close
friend of mine remarked, the movie dies or lives on its last moment—you either
buy into that or you walk away feeling gypped.
I go back and forth, but the more I think about it, the more I think
that last moment is when the movie goes Hollywood by becoming just another
oh-wait-look-up-there-he-really DOES-exist Santa Claus movie.
Boyhood. The first
half of this movie is amazing. There’s
nothing familiar about it, and it has everything going for it. The second half is when the main character
gets old enough to become a Richard Linklater character, and we’re suddenly in
what feels like a very familiar movie.
I think that, when people talk about how amazing this film is, they’re
talking about the logistics behind it—the mechanics, the way it was produced
and shot—the way, if you want to make a war analogy, all the soldiers and
equipment were coordinated for a battle which, in the end, isn’t as thrilling
as the plan of attack—where the actual fight is something of a letdown. And it’s the fight
that gets the Academy’s votes. Which
brings us to the dark horse:
American Sniper.
Depending on how you look at it, this is an anti-war movie masquerading
as hero worship, or hero worship masquerading as an anti-war movie. In other words, how you see it depends
entirely on what you’re looking to see, and the movie is clever enough to play
to and support those two opposing visions.
It’s also classically constructed, balancing a kid-with-a-weapon scene
at the beginning with a kid-with-a-weapon scene at the end, to chart the
difference in Bradley Cooper’s sniper.
Its battle scenes are models of clarity—you always know who’s who and
where you are, especially in that sandstorm sequence. And yes, it has the usual wife-who-is-feeling-distanced female
lead, but Sienna Miller (Sienna Miller!) nails it. Plus the Academy loves Clint Eastwood. So this could totally sneak in as Best Picture, or—just like
voting for Bradley Cooper—cut into the votes for one of the two other
favorites. If that happens, look for
those votes to come from Boyhood’s totals.
In the end, I think Birdman is going to win, thanks in no small part to that final Yes-Emma-Stone-there-IS-a-Birdman moment. Because if it's anything the Academy wants to believe in, it's Santa Claus.